Utah Election May Already Be Over: Trump Leading by 10%
(Utah) – A new Utah Presidential poll of likely voters was released today, showing Donald Trump with a solid lead over Hillary Clinton and independent, Evan McMullin. The Trafalgar Group (TFG), a national political consulting and public relations firm, conducted the poll from November 3rd through November 5th.
The presidential results show Donald Trump leading with 39.95%, Hillary Clinton 29.52%, Evan McMullin 24.52%, Gary Johnson 3.89%, and 2.12% undecided. TFG surveyed 1,352 likely general election voters using a random sample of registered voters in Utah. The survey was stratified to reflect the election demographics in Utah. The margin of error is +/- 2.67.
Commenting on the survey, TFG Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said, "While Trump holds a sizeable lead, there are two noteworthy items: the fact that over 55% have already voted early or by mail-in and how the pattern has gone in the neighbors question."
Cahaly also stated, "Having done a lot of work in the state, we know from experience, that Utah contested general elections are now fought and won in October. Most Utah counties have replaced traditional election day voting at a polling location with mail-in balloting or in-person advanced voting. In fact every voter in those counties was mailed a ballot in early October. Trump has a significant lead now and a slight lead among those who have already voted."
Cahaly continued, “We ask question 2 (the neighbors question) to reveal the genuine opinion of shy voters. There was an interesting result, the usual pattern of Clinton dropping and Trump gaining exists, but at the largest margin we've seen in any other state we've polled. Interestingly enough, the McMullin numbers on the standard ballot test and the neighbors question are within a tenth of a point of being exactly the same. Suggesting that if you're for McMullin, you have no concern admitting it."
Cahaly concluded, "The mail-in/early vote, the neighbors Trump/Clinton numbers, and the neighbors McMullin number lead us to believe that Trump will have a strong plurality win in Utah.”
The Trafalgar Group conducted many of the most accurate GOP polls in the 2016 Primary, most notably South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida in the southeast, as well as Michigan, Ohio, Kansas, and Louisiana. For the 2016 General, TFG has released polls in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The results and information of these polls have been featured in numerous national news stories, television networks, and high-profile polling websites like Real Clear Politics.
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Editor’s note: Full report, including methodology and crosstabs, can be found at the link below.
Click here for the Full Poll Report
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Free Ammo for Voters on Nov. 8
Nationwide general elections will be held on November 8th (Tuesday).
To assist voters in their efforts, UT Gun Rights has prepared the 2016 Utah Government Corruption Report. This report assigns state house and senate statutators a rating based upon their political performance. See
http://utgunrights.com/freeammo/reports/2016/2016-utah-government-corruption-report.htm
This report is part of UT Gun Rights' Free Ammo page, which features additional information regarding your right to keep and bear arms, the rampant political corruption infesting Utah, and potential actions you can take to hold officials accountable. Visit this page at
http://utgunrights.com/freeammo/freeammo.htm
For more information on Utah voting locations, requirements, and other details, see
https://elections.utah.gov/election-resources/2016-election-information
